Get a 48-Hour Cost Scenario..
Typical result: −8–15% landed cost.
Indicative; actual outcomes vary by program.
Indicative; actual outcomes vary by program.
How to Build a 48-Hour Landed-Cost Scenario
Summary: A practical, lightweight method for SMB teams to model landed cost (duty, freight, lead time, MOQ) in 48 hours and choose the best shipment/packaging setup. Who it’s for: SMB distributors, small teams, emerging brands handling custom products.
What you’ll learn
Break FOB/EXW into a transparent landed-cost model (duty, freight, last-mile, compliance).
Compare 3–4 legal, tariff-efficient scenarios without changing quality or lead time.
Decide with clear rules—when to switch, when to stay.
Step 1 — Collect minimum viable inputs (MVI)
Category & material • Unit size/weight • Outer-carton dims • Unit price & MOQ • Target margin or target landed price • Lead-time window • Shipment cadence • Compliance constraints (labels/tests).
Tip: Ranges are fine. The goal is directional clarity in 48 hours, not perfection.
Step 2 — Structure your sheet
Recommended columns:
Unit FOB • Units/Carton • Carton Dimensions & GW • Cartons/Shipment
Freight (air/sea/express) • Insurance • Brokerage • Last-mile
Duty % (HS) • Other taxes/fees • Compliance cost (testing/labels)
Lead-time window (min–max) • Incoterms (FOB/DDU/DDP/EXW)
Core math (examples):
Duty = Customs Value × Duty%
Freight per unit = Total Freight ÷ Units Shipped
Landed per unit = FOB + Freight/u + Duty/u + Brokerage/u + Insurance/u + Last-mile/u + Compliance/u
Step 3 — Model scenarios (compare apples to apples)
At minimum, build these:
Baseline — your current route/terms.
Consolidation — combine SKUs/POs to raise fill-rate.
Packaging-optimized — adjust carton size/density, reduce void.
Terms cadence — test DDP/DDU vs FOB, and weekly vs bi-weekly drops. For each scenario, output: unit landed cost (with range), fit to lead-time window,
Step 4 — Decision rules (simple and defensible)
If landed cost ↓ ≥ 8% and lead time stays within window → Recommend.
If landed ↓ < 5% but lead time shortens ≥ 1 week → Consider.
If compliance risk rises or assumptions are weak → Reject or re-model.
Step 5 — Package the outcome (so stakeholders can say “yes”)
One-page summary: numbers, risks, chosen scenario, next steps.
Editable sheet: all inputs, formulas, and versions.
Assumptions list: HS basis, volumetric rules, peak surcharges.
Next steps: finalize terms, book cadence, approve packaging sample.
Red flags to avoid
Chasing duty at the expense of compliance • Ignoring peak season surcharges • Changing cartons without updating retail packaging/barcodes • Making year-round decisions from one extreme quote.
Mini-FAQs
Do I need perfect data? No—ranges are enough for a go/no-go decision in 48 hours. Will this work for small volumes? Yes. Savings often come from smarter consolidation and packaging, not only scale.
Get a 48-Hour Cost Scenario.
Typical result: −8–15% landed cost. Indicative; actual outcomes vary by program.
